You know how it goes. The stock is rising nicely and then crash, it falls sharply and develops a price waterfall as it descends to a level never seen before. And then it appears to languish at this level with no hope of recovery. But slowly it does and soon breaks higher developing a bullish trend. The consolidation phase is the accumulation phase where the market makers are doing just that and preparing for the next major campaign for the stock, and hence the reason these price patterns can be so profitable as you are buying a stock at a low price along with the market makers.
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As we approach the year-end, for forex traders this represents a great time of year with plenty of volatility as volume falls in the run up to the holiday season. But this delivers plenty of excellent trading opportunities and the starting point as always is the currency strength indicator which helps to identify when a currency is overbought to oversold and hence guides you to the opportunities immediately. From there, it's off to the charts, and check out the volume associated with any moves as you look for primary to primary trend reversals.
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Markets move on risk appetite, short and simple. Risk on and risk off describes the flow of money as it moves from one market to another. But which charts and indices best describe risk and market sentiment?
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With Brexit once more in the headlines it's the British pound which is delivering some great forex trading opportunities across the pound complex and worries concerning a no deal surface once more and drive the currency lower on the daily timeframe. But remember, when a currency is driven in this way expect to see volatility and plenty of trap moves intraday which is where the volatility indicator steps in. And the news for the pound was made worse by the release of news concerning a vaccine trial which had run into problems. So not a happy time for the pound at present!
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In this video you will discover that now all trends are the same. Each is different and it pays to understand what type of trend you are trading before you enter any position in the forex market.
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None of us are patient, yet when it comes to congestion phases this is where patience really does pay off, as these are the price regions where trends are created and born. And remember Wyckoff's second law of cause and effect, the longer the cause the greater will be the effect. In other words this brings time into the equation.
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This morning's price action on the British pound was classic, following the release of the UK news and statement from the BOE. The primary pair for trading is of course cable, but the price action here was extreme, whipsawing in a wide range and making it almost impossible to trade. So what's the answer? In short, look to other currency pairs and in particular the cross currency pairs. In this case it was the GBP/AUD which delivered tradable opportunities which the GBP/USD did not. So remember, when you see volatility in the forex markets, look to the cross pairs for more measured opportunities.
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The agreement between EU member states on the bailout package would normally be perceived as good news by many forex traders, yet the euro has fallen. Here's why and it's all to do with the bond markets and in particular the spreads between Italy and Germany which hold the long term key for the direction of the single currency.
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