Once GBP data is out of the way we can then look forward to the unemployment claims in the US and the Ivey PMI from Canada. Both items are released at the same time & here expect to see the biggest reaction in the USD/CAD. On the daily chart for the pair the resistance in the 1.2470 - 1.25 region (which also coincides with the VPOC), is putting a temporary brake on any move higher. On our daily currency strength indicator we do appear to have more downside for the CAD, particularly against the euro where we recently had a strong move away from the resistance in the 1.38 region.
As always the Canadian dollar will also reflect price trends for oil, and with OPEC now set on a collision course with the alternative energy suppliers in an overt price war, oil prices look set to remain low for years to come. Indeed OPEC themselves have publicly stated that oil will...
If you come along to our forex webinars you will always hear David & I explain the importance of the fundamental news & how easy it is to be ambushed by 'events'. But I must admit so far it's been absolutely relentless & it's only Wednesday!
Coming up we have Aussie retail sales & Trade Balance - both very important numbers, and so far it's been a buy of the Aussie except against the euro - a trade we've been following. Of the two releases - the Trade Balance number has been negative since July last year, and whilst February's number was encouraging, coming in at -0.44b against a forecast of -0.85b, the subsequent releases have been dire.
Tonight's headline number is -2.17b against a forecast of -1.32b, in fact a further deterioration, and with AUD/USD having moved strongly higher yesterday as a result of USD weakness. it's no surprise to see a doji on today's daily chart, which by coincidence is...
The EUR/USD continues to look bearish as it sits on support between 1.0885 & 1.0890 & just below the VPOC the yellow line on the volume point of control indicator. This level has now been breached on good volume and should take the pair to 1.0863. In addition the trend monitor has also transitioned from blue to red and with the US unemployment data coming up shortly, this could provide further downwards momentum if the numbers are on target or better than expected. The forecast this time around is 271k against a previous of 274k and whilst this is an important number it is the backwash from Janet Yellen's US dollar positive comments which continue to drive the US dollar higher, coupled as always with ongoing concerns over the Greek debt issues, which have yet to be resolved - if ever!
The currency strength indicator is confirming the negative sentiment for the single currency with the orange line, the euro, reaching an...
Here in UK election day is almost here & we can expect reactions as soon as the exit polls start posting as well as the actual results. Heaven only knows what is going to happen. So far GBP has been fairly well behaved - moving more as a result of USD & EUR.
Meanwhile in Asia - AUD has employment data to contend with. On 4hr CSI we have seen the AUD pull back & is also showing the NZD as hugely oversold, but as mentioned many times before a currency can stay stubbornly over stretched for a considerable time. And in the case of the Kiwi where it is still falling on the weekly and daily charts it is likely to stay down on the 4 hr chart. Of course AUD/USD is the one to watch, but expect to see moves in the AUD/NZD cross with some interesting volume/price action now developing in the slower timeframes, and with the NZD (...
It was an interesting week for the British pound and in particular against the US dollar, with the pair selling off sharply on Friday and closing with a wide spread down candle on the daily chart. The move lower was in stark contrast to the recent trend for Cable which had been firmly bullish rising in tandem with the EUR/USD as US dollar weakness prevailed on the dollar index. The move on Friday came as no surprise to those traders using a currency strength indicator, with the British pound moving to a deeply overbought region on the indicator, and counterbalanced with the US dollar being equally oversold in the slower timeframes. With Thursday's election now on the horizon, and with a slew of opinion polls due for release in the next few days, these are continually signalling a close result with no party likely to have an overall majority in Parliament. As a result we can expect to see further...
Cable selling off sharply on the back of poor GDP figure falling to a low of 1.5176, but recovering sharply and back over key support at 1.5220, and with USD continuing to look weak no reason why it cable can't continue higher. It has already touched 1.5260 & beyond this price level we are then looking at 1.53 and beyond.
This afternoon we have the CB consumer confidence release at 2.00 pm London. USD weakness has also played its part in these moves.
USD index is now the one to watch - running into the release and also ahead of tomorrow's FOMC....
The main focus overnight was in Australia with the RBA deciding to hold the current cash rate at 2.25%, with no cut. This decision was against the backdrop of declining commodity prices and a slowdown in China with many expecting the rate to be cut to 2.00%. As a result the Aussie dollar strengthened on the news against many of the major currencies, with another nice move on the EUR/AUD on the 15 minute chart.
The Quantum accumulation and distribution indicator initially defined the support and resistance region with the 1.4360 being the key level of support and a region that had been tested on several occasions prior to the news. The bearish sentiment was confirmed with the trend monitor to the bottom of the chart which continues to remain bearish in this timeframe with the move lower accompanied by high volume and confirming the short term bearish trend. To the left of the chart and the Ninjatrader currency strength indicator,...
Question
Hi Anna, Firstly, I just wanted to say I've just finished "Forex For Beginners" and I thoroughly enjoyed the book; found if extremely helpful and useful. Opened my first forex account on Friday of last week. Made some mistakes at first, lacked the discipline to follow my strategy, I think I was a tad over keen to trade at first. I've just purchased "A Complete Guide to VPA" so I'll start on that tonight. I have a quick question though if you wouldn't mind answering. In Forex for Beginners, you use the Currency Strength Indicator to look for potential indicators of an upcoming reversal. And then from this you use the currency matrix and analysis to confirm the reversal. I was just wondering, if you could use the same strategy to indicate a continuing trend? If this is explained in the book I've just purchased I apologise, I just thought I'd ask.
For example, if both the Aus and Usd are...
