In many ways an extraordinary day - particularly for the AUD/USD which has posted a huge candle on the daily chart. In fact the three main USD pairs David & I follow, namely the EUR/USD/ GBP/USD & AUD/USD have all ended in positive territory - with the Aussie the clear leader!!
All three have, of course, benefited from relentless USD selling, and for a view of whether this is set to continue we will have to wait for tomorrow's advance GDP release and also the FOMC. The USD is certainly over extended on the medium term time frames (30 and 60 min) as can be seen on the currency strength indicator alongside the chart above. However, as we've seen with the Aussie today, a currency can stay over extended for very long periods of time. In the higher time frames there is still some room for the USD to fall even further. Indeed the monthly chart for the USD index is...
Cable selling off sharply on the back of poor GDP figure falling to a low of 1.5176, but recovering sharply and back over key support at 1.5220, and with USD continuing to look weak no reason why it cable can't continue higher. It has already touched 1.5260 & beyond this price level we are then looking at 1.53 and beyond.
This afternoon we have the CB consumer confidence release at 2.00 pm London. USD weakness has also played its part in these moves.
USD index is now the one to watch - running into the release and also ahead of tomorrow's FOMC....
For forex traders in London yesterday morning, eurozone PMI and UK retail sales were the main items of fundamental news. And it was Cable again which provided us with some important trading lessons.
The first was how we need to be aware of positioning ahead of any major news release. In the run up to the retail sales number, Cable had been basing around the 1.4920 support platform, having come off the 1.4975 high of the previous evening, thereby creating the start of what looked to be a down candle.
However, as always is it the daily chart which is so important, providing us with a more macro view of any currency pair, and here Cable has been very bullish since bouncing off major support in the 1.4898 region.
Just ahead of the news Cable started to move up, and with the release the usual volatility occurred, which triggered a candle with a 56 pip spread - taking out both longs and shorts!...
Ahead of the German ZEW data this morning, markets are positioning for a move in the euro dollar, with the euro now heavily oversold and the US dollar equally over bought in the faster timeframes. Using the currency strength indicator in multiple timeframes provides a fast and visual picture of currency strength and weakness, with the euro (the gold line) now deeply oversold from the the 5 minute to the 30 minute timeframe, and preparing to reverse the longer term bearish sentiment ahead of the news. Apart from the ZEW, the only other ongoing euro news is of course Greece which continues to weigh on the single currency.
Finally remember that any market or currency can remain over extended for some time, and as always patience is the key coupled with the price action on the charts. The currency strength indicator is always the starting point to identify potential strength and weakness in an individual currency. Then it's time to consider...
As the markets get under way in London this morning, and with a relatively thin day for fundamental news, the US dollar is once again advancing on the fast time frame charts and providing some excellent intraday scalping opportunities across the currency majors. Both the British pound and the euro have been selling off sharply against the US dollar, with the currency strength indicator on the 15 minute timeframe showing the US dollar, the red line rising firmly and moving towards the overbought region, with the euro (orange) and the pound (yellow) both moving strongly lower along with the Swiss franc (green).
The chart alongside is of the GBP/USD in a slightly slower time frame (30m) and reflecting the current bearish sentiment at present for this pair, with the Trend Monitor at the bottom of the chart remaining firmly red, with the current volume rising, and confirming the current move lower. In addition, Cable is now breaking below the recent platform...
In the run up to any UK news the British pound is often one of the best currencies to consider early in the London trading session, either to position ahead of the news, or to wait until the data has been released. However, this morning the most compelling currency has been the Japanese Yen which is very over stretched across a number of time frames on our currency strength indicator. The result has been a number of potential trades to sell the YEN.
This is the principle way we approach the forex market - focus on a single currency & consider its price behaviour against its counter parties to see which is offering the best opportunity to trade safely and profitably. A sell on the YEN usually denotes positive market sentiment and this morning we have seen some mildly bullish moves in Globex on the NQ & ES indices, confirming this risk on sentiment. The USD/JPY is also ticking higher, giving us additional confidence.
Of...
It's been another great day's trading on the EUR/AUD, which has continued the bearish tone from yesterday, following the RBA statement and a decision to keep interest rates on hold for the time being. The 60 minute chart has delivered a consistent trend today with the pair moving through the platform of support in the 1.4125 region and as defined with the accumulation and distribution indicator. The trend monitor at the bottom of the chart continues to confirm the bearish tone, supported by the trend dots indicator. Early this afternoon the wide spread down candle saw the pair close at 1.4016 on very high volume, and confirming the current bearish tone for the pair.
To the left of the chart, the Quantum currency strength indicator confirms the technical picture, with the euro (the orange line) now deep in oversold territory, and with the Aussie dollar (the blue line) continuing to rise deep into the overbought region. A great trade on this...
The main focus overnight was in Australia with the RBA deciding to hold the current cash rate at 2.25%, with no cut. This decision was against the backdrop of declining commodity prices and a slowdown in China with many expecting the rate to be cut to 2.00%. As a result the Aussie dollar strengthened on the news against many of the major currencies, with another nice move on the EUR/AUD on the 15 minute chart.
The Quantum accumulation and distribution indicator initially defined the support and resistance region with the 1.4360 being the key level of support and a region that had been tested on several occasions prior to the news. The bearish sentiment was confirmed with the trend monitor to the bottom of the chart which continues to remain bearish in this timeframe with the move lower accompanied by high volume and confirming the short term bearish trend. To the left of the chart and the Ninjatrader currency strength indicator,...
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In this morning's forex trading session with Anna and David, one of the currency pairs they focused on was the EUR/AUD, which was the strongest performing currency pair in the currency matrix. The 60 minute currency strength indicator confirmed the longer term position, with the euro (the orange line) climbing strongly towards the overbought region on the indicator, with the Aussie dollar ( the blue line) moving firmly towards the oversold region in this timeframe. The 5 minute chart alongside reflects the trend, with the trend monitor maintaining the bullish picture, and only moving into a transitional color during the minor congestion periods. The trend monitor sister indicator, the trend dots completes the picture and highlighting these congestion phases in advance.
Volumes throughout the move were in agreement and confirming the bullish sentiment for the pair with the accumulation and distribution indicator on NinjaTrader, highlighting the keys areas of support and resistance. The support platform at 1.4252 held firm during the...
