Quantum Trading

EUR/USD turns bearish moving through the VPOC

May 28, 2015 by Quantum Trading Comment Closed

The EUR/USD continues to look bearish as it sits on support between 1.0885 & 1.0890 & just below the VPOC the yellow line on the volume point of control indicator. This level has now been breached on good volume and should take the pair to 1.0863. In addition the trend monitor has also transitioned from blue to red and with the US unemployment data coming up shortly, this could provide further downwards momentum if the numbers are on target or better than expected. The forecast this time around is 271k against a previous of 274k and whilst this is an important number it is the backwash from Janet Yellen's US dollar positive comments which continue to drive the US dollar higher, coupled as always with ongoing concerns over the Greek debt issues, which have yet to be resolved - if ever! The currency strength indicator is confirming the negative sentiment for the single currency with the orange line, the euro, reaching an...

Morning bid levels trigger intaday bounce for EUR/USD

May 26, 2015 by Quantum Trading Comment Closed

In our forex webinars we now also consider the order boards - in other words those potential buy and sell orders posted by the institutions, & if you can get hold of these I would strongly suggest you watch them (particularly) at the beginning of any session, as they really do influence the price action. Whilst this morning's level confirmed the selling we have been seeing driven by US dollar strength and equally concerns over Greece, what's more important is where price is likely to pause & perhaps even rebound slightly. The 1.0885 was the first bid level and is was no surprise to see this hit and buyers step into the market. This doesn't negate the bearish sentiment for eurodollar, but at least we know where the market is heading in the short term and here a picture paints a thousand words, with the price action hitting the MT4 support and resistance indicator precisely at this level, and reinforced with...

GBP gets a boost from retail sales

May 21, 2015 by Quantum Trading Comment Closed

UK retail sales have given GBP a real boost higher & it's occupying six top spots on the currency matrix. Number was a great improvement & market has temporarily forgotten the negative CPI number. What's interesting is at 8.00 am at the London open, there was a huge buy of cable off an important order board level at 1.5520 with retail sales then just adding the momentum. Cable is also benefiting from USD pull back from its recent bullish move higher. The 4hr currency strength indicator is particularly revealing as the USD has been overbought for some time, but is now moving lower. The move higher in the London session has now moved to test the VPOC level in the daily chart, and we are now waiting to see if this afternoon's US data can help to push the GBP/USD through this key level. This is denoted on the chart with the yellow line. ...

USD now moving into overbought on the 4 hour chart

May 20, 2015 by Quantum Trading Comment Closed

Without wishing to downgrade this evening's FOMC minutes, which will no doubt result in the usual volatile market moves, stop hunting & general shenanigans, the main FED event takes places on Friday at 6.00 pm London time. This is when Janet Yellen is due to give an important speech about the US economic outlook, and so one to watch. Meantime USD strength has continued overnight across the majors and into this morning, with German PPI helping to give the eurodollar a shove lower. Other items of note this morning include the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) of the BOE playing their standard formation (football parlance) of 0-0-9. In other words 9 defenders, no midfield & no strikers. For FED watchers FOMC Member Evans has been speaking in Munich and has been simply repeating his call for a delay in raising interest rates. No moves expected as he is re-iterating his well known stance as a dove. This is why we need to know where...

AUD/NZD now in focus

May 18, 2015 by Quantum Trading Comment Closed

USD buying has continued into US session, and despite it being a holiday in Canada the USD/CAD has done really well. Question now is how far is USD likely to move higher. The key level is 11,750 on the USDX index which is the support platform which was breached last week & of which we may see a re-test. Focus overnight is back to AUD & NZD, with a monetary policy statement from the RBA for the first, & inflation expectation for the second. Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD have had a bearish day, although Aussie dollar less so. In addition, whilst we can expect a reaction in both these pairs, we can also expect some interesting moves in the AUD/NZD cross which today has had an 80 pip move to the upside. Since last Tuesday the pair has traded in a relatively narrow range, 1.0865 to the top & 1.0776 to the bottom, and I do believe the overnight news may be...

More selling of the US dollar

May 14, 2015 by Quantum Trading Comment Closed

Despite it being a holiday across most of Europe for Ascension Day - it's quite lively out there at the moment. We've also just had an unscheduled comments from Mark Carney (not shown on Forex Factory), but came up on Forex Live feed. Greek Fin Min Varoufakis also speaking & even mentioning the word 'reform'. Meanwhile on the charts it's been more selling of USD which is propelling euro & gbp higher with volatility candles on faster time frames. For cable 1.5788 is a key level being tested up to and including the daily chart. Have reading how a lot of traders are looking to short cable since it went over 1.5550, but it's just not co-operating & the principle reason is the USD which continues to be sold off. It's only in the EUR/GBP that we have seen some serious GBP selling. This is an aspect of forex trading David & I will be covering in tomorrow's forex webinars - the importance...

Aussie dollar and the AUD/NZD the ones to watch

May 7, 2015 by Quantum Trading Comment Closed

Here in UK election day is almost here & we can expect reactions as soon as the exit polls start posting as well as the actual results. Heaven only knows what is going to happen. So far GBP has been fairly well behaved - moving more as a result of USD & EUR. Meanwhile in Asia - AUD has employment data to contend with. On 4hr CSI we have seen the AUD pull back & is also showing the NZD as hugely oversold, but as mentioned many times before a currency can stay stubbornly over stretched for a considerable time. And in the case of the Kiwi where it is still falling on the weekly and daily charts it is likely to stay down on the 4 hr chart. Of course AUD/USD is the one to watch, but expect to see moves in the AUD/NZD cross with some interesting volume/price action now developing in the slower timeframes, and with the NZD (...

Volume point of control (VPOC indicator MT4) confirms bearish sentiment for USD/CAD

May 4, 2015 by Quantum Trading Comment Closed

In a relatively quiet day of trading in the forex markets with both the UK and Japan closed for public holidays, it's been the Canadian dollar which has moved significantly during the session, and picking up the longer term bearish tone once again. In early trading, the pair moved in a tight range, before finally breaking through the platform of support in the 1.2145 area and continuing lower to currently trade at 1.2095 at the time of writing. The price action has now continued lower with the volume point of control indicator (VPOC indicator MT4) remaining firmly in place above in the 1.2110 area on the 30 minute chart, and signalling further downside momentum in due course. The trend monitor has remained firmly red throughout the trading session, and with the currency strength indicator to the left confirming further strength for the CAD and weakness for the USD, the volume point of control (VPOC) is likely to move to the next...

An interesting week ahead for the British pound

May 2, 2015 by Quantum Trading Comment Closed

It was an interesting week for the British pound and in particular against the US dollar, with the pair selling off sharply on Friday and closing with a wide spread down candle on the daily chart. The move lower was in stark contrast to the recent trend for Cable which had been firmly bullish rising in tandem with the EUR/USD as US dollar weakness prevailed on the dollar index. The move on Friday came as no surprise to those traders using a currency strength indicator, with the British pound moving to a deeply overbought region on the indicator, and counterbalanced with the US dollar being equally oversold in the slower timeframes. With Thursday's election now on the horizon, and with a slew of opinion polls due for release in the next few days, these are continually signalling a close result with no party likely to have an overall majority in Parliament. As a result we can expect to see further...

An extraordinary day for the Aussie dollar

April 28, 2015 by Quantum Trading Comment Closed

In many ways an extraordinary day - particularly for the AUD/USD which has posted a huge candle on the daily chart. In fact the three main USD pairs David & I follow, namely the EUR/USD/ GBP/USD & AUD/USD have all ended in positive territory - with the Aussie the clear leader!! All three have, of course, benefited from relentless USD selling, and for a view of whether this is set to continue we will have to wait for tomorrow's advance GDP release and also the FOMC. The USD is certainly over extended on the medium term time frames (30 and 60 min) as can be seen on the currency strength indicator alongside the chart above. However, as we've seen with the Aussie today, a currency can stay over extended for very long periods of time. In the higher time frames there is still some room for the USD to fall even further. Indeed the monthly chart for the USD index is...