Pause in cable’s sharp move lower

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Last Tuesday's failure by cable to take out the 1.5818 resistance resulted in a down candle on high volume, which when it was combined with the previous day's bullish candle on very high volume gave us a two bar reversal (aka a shooting star), and the first signal that cable's preceding move away from the volume point of control region was likely to fail. This view was also validated by the volume which accompanied the shooting star, and a further clear signal of weakness to come. Against this backdrop Wednesday's sharp 267 pip sell off in cable came as no surprise with the pair also moving firmly below the VPOC to close out at 1.5463 on the session. The bearish sentiment was cable continued for the remainder of the week, as the pair closed out August 1.5390. The start of the new trading week saw cable once again come under pressure, on relatively low volume, but this is easily explained as Monday was...
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Bearish sentiment continues for eurodollar

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
The release of slightly better than expected preliminary GDP and unemployment claims for the US did manage to add some bearish momentum to the eurodollar before it found support at 1.2525 from where it has been attempting to rally higher. It goes without saying this level needs to be taken out for the pair to continue lower. However, what is also significant on the 30 min and hourly chart is that this price point marks the low of the volatility candles which were triggered at the time of the news releases. A trigger of such a candle - in other words a candle which is outside the ATR for the instrument in question - often results in the price action simply retreating within the spread of the candle. At time of writing the pair is once again approaching the 1.1225 price point and if taken out should see the pair move to test the next level of support at 1.1213. The good...
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Bears take hold of cable

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Today's reversal in cable has once again taken the pair back to the VPOC (volume point of control) support which sits in the 1.5573 price region. This price area is where cable has been rotating since early July, and despite what appeared to be a decisive break away on Monday when cable touched a high of 1.5803, yesterday's down candle has had the effect of creating a classic two bar reversal. Therefore, no surprise to see the resulting fall in today's trading session where cable has fallen over 200 pips. Today's price action has not only taken cable below the VPOC for the first time since early August but also seen a break through the 100 ma, and with today's move supported with good volume the next stop for cable would appear to be 1.5424 on the daily chart. Moving to the hourly chart cable has found some good support at 1.5466, a price point first hit by a volatility candle earlier...
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Interesting divergence in the majors

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
During yesterday's overall market volatility the forex market posted some very interesting and intriguing price action and candle patterns, particularly with regard to the major pairs. As a general rule of thumb whenever the market becomes agitated and adopts a 'risk off' mood traders and investors can expect a strong move into safe havens such as the US dollar and gold. However, as has been the case recently where we have seen a breakdown of correlations and traditional market relationships, the USD did not react as many would have expected. A look across the daily charts of our 7 major pairs not only reveals this divergence, but also highlights the importance of understanding volatility, particularly with respect to its affect on the ATR of an instrument. As we can see from the charts only three pairs escaped triggering a volatility candle, and these were the USD/CAD, the USD/CHF and Cable with the USD rising strongly in the first two pairs, but falling in...
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Eurodollar bears take control

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Although the market is focused on tomorrow's release of the FOMC minutes, an event guaranteed to cause a degree of market volatility, it is the release of the CPI and Core CPI numbers earlier in the session which are probably even more important. Of the two releases it is the Core CPI the FED pays the most attention to, and a big influence on the likely timing of any rise in interest rates. Meantime, the USD appears to have found its mojo once again following last week's dramatic fall, with the eurodollar bearing the brunt of this resurgence. The daily chart for the eurodollar is particularly interesting where weakness for the pair started last week with the failure to break and hold above the VPOC (volume point of control) in the 1.1167 price region. Friday's close below the 100 ma appears to have been the catalyst for a pick up in bearish sentiment for eurodollar which saw the pair close yesterday's trading...
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CSI highlights GBP sell off

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Ahead of the release of the Monetary Policy Minutes from the RBA, and tomorrow's CPI number for the UK, it's been interesting to see how the Aussie and British pound have been behaving in today's trading session. And of the two currencies it has been the British pound which has seen some heavy selling against both the USD and the Aussie. The hourly chart of the CSI (currency strength indicator) highlighted the extent to which the British pound was overbought, and Cable's failure to take out the resistance at 1.5688 signaled the start of a reversal in fortune for the pair and a move lower of over 100 pips.  And it has only been a combination of the VPOC at 1.5585 and support at 1.5578 that has prevented any further move lower for Cable. Moving to the GBP/AUD  here too we have seen a move lower for the British pound with the pair eventually finding support at 2.1094 from which we have...
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USD looks set to move higher

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
In the current media speculation surrounding the impact of the PBOC decision to revalue/devalue the yuan, particularly on how this may (or may not) affect the FED's decision about raising interest rates, it is easy to forget two things. First, the fundamental news releases which too will add their own layer of volatility, and second Greece, which today is back centre stage as the Greek parliament meets today in emergency session to ratify the latest bail out deal. Today's key releases are primarily in the US with retail sales, core retail sales and the unemployment claims due. And of these it is the retail sales numbers which the market will be focused on primarily because they may give some guidance as to the FED's thinking about interest rates. Meantime in this morning's trading the USD has been broadly higher against all the major currencies except the British pound, but with the US session due to start shortly, Cable too may simply fall...
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NZD/USD rebounds following PBOC

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Perhaps, not surprisingly, it has been the Aussie and Kiwi which have responded the most to the PBOC (People's Bank of China) move to devalue the yuan, with the AUD/USD completely erasing last Friday's and Monday's gains to end yesterday's trading session just over the key 0.73 level. Further falls overnight has seen the pair tumble to 0.7224 since when it has staged a remarkable comeback in the London session to trade (at time of writing) at 0.7330. The move off the session lows has also co-incided with our last VPOC supoort line on both the daily and weekly charts. On the daily chart the first target for AUD/USD is the VPOC resistance at 0.7395, followed by further resistance at 0.7438, and yesterday's high. However, the extent of the comeback for both pairs can be seen on the hourly charts where it has been the NZD/USD which has proved the stronger of the two with the decisive move away from the...
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The VPOC indicator for NinjaTrader in action!

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
In this video we take a closer look at the VPOC indicator for Ninjatrader, and see it in action across a variety of markets and timeframes. We start by looking at the ES mini on some fast timeframe charts of 3 minutes and upwards as the physical market opens to join Globex. Next we look at the VPOC on a GBP/USD chart on seconds, and to complete the trio of faster time frame charts, we look at the NQ emini on a tick chart. The VPOC indicator for Ninjatrader works in exactly the same way, whether on a minute chart, a seconds chart or a tick chart. Finally to round off this video we take a look at some daily charts for gold, the CAD/USD futures contract and oil....
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The VPOC – volume point of control now on NinjaTrader

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
The Quantum VPOC indicator has been developed to expand the two dimensional study of volume and price, to a three dimensional one which embraces time. The volume/price/time relationship then provides real insight to the inner workings of the market and the heartbeat of sentiment and risk which drives the price action accordingly. The VPOC indicator for NinjaTrader displays the transacted volume at the various price levels vertically on the right hand side of the chart, showing instantly those regions where volume is most intense, as well as those where volume is weak. This then creates the valleys and troughs of the volume profile with what we call High Volume Nodes and Low Volume Nodes. Typically these are regions where the market has paused and moved into a congestion transaction phase, either for longer periods of time which develop the High Volume Nodes, or for shorter periods which then build the Low Volume Nodes. The VPOC indicator for NinjaTrader is constantly monitoring these...
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